America's stock markets typically start crumbling four months before each 
recession, anticipating the crunch in profits. Shares then grind 
relentlessly down for 10 months or so until they have on average knocked 26 
per cent off the S&P 500 index, Wall Street's listing of top companies.

So if you think the US property slump is looking scary after October's 9.7 
per cent drop in new home prices, it may be time to take a little money off 
the table. It has been a lucrative autumn rally, but the four-year bull 
market is long in the tooth by any standards.

As we report today, the rate of insider stock sales by company directors on 
both sides of the Atlantic is the highest since records began 20 years ago, 
with sales outnumbering purchases by 60:1.